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Code for modelling estimated deaths and cases for COVID19 from Report 13 published by MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Imperial College London: [Estimating the number of infections and the impact of nonpharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 in 11 European countries](https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-analysis/covid-19/report-13-europe-npi-impact/)
## Version 2 Release
In this update we extend our original [model](https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-analysis/covid-19/report-13-europe-npi-impact/) to include (a) population saturation effects, (b) prior uncertaintyon the infection fatality ratio and (c) a more balanced prior on intervention effects. We also (d) included another3 countries (Greece, the Netherlands and Portugal). The updated technical detail is available [here](https://github.com/ImperialCollegeLondon/covid19model/blob/master/Technical_description_of_Imperial_COVID_19_Model.pdf)
In this update we extend our original [model](https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-analysis/covid-19/report-13-europe-npi-impact/) to include (a) population saturation effects, (b) prior uncertaintyon the infection fatality ratio and (c) a more balanced prior on intervention effects. We also (d) included another3 countries (Greece, the Netherlands and Portugal). The updated technical detail is available [here](https://github.com/ImperialCollegeLondon/covid19model/blob/master/Technical_description_of_Imperial_COVID_19_Model.pdf).
You can directly look at our results [here](https://imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19estimates)
This repository has code for replication purposes. The bleeding edge code and advancements are done in a private repository. Ask report authors for any collaborations.