Remove outdated forecasts.

Expected forecast output:
1. QDAU for desktop
2. DAU for mobile
No CDOU or QCDOU measures.

jobs/kpi-forecasting/kpi-forecasting/sql_queries/desktop_dau_v1.sql

@@ -1,40 +0,0 @@
-WITH
-    cd_dau AS (
-        SELECT
-            submission_date,
-            100 * COUNTIF(scalar_parent_browser_engagement_total_uri_count_sum > 0 AND active_hours_sum > 0) AS uri_at_dau_cd
-        FROM telemetry.clients_daily
-        WHERE submission_date >= DATE(2017,1,1)
-        AND sample_id = 0
-        GROUP BY 1
-        ORDER BY 1
-    )
-    ,
-
-    main_clients AS (
-        SELECT
-         DATE(submission_timestamp) AS submission_date,
-         client_id,
-         COALESCE(SUM(payload.processes.parent.scalars.browser_engagement_total_uri_count_normal_and_private_mode), 0) AS normal_private,
-         COALESCE(SUM(payload.processes.parent.scalars.browser_engagement_total_uri_count), 0) AS normal,
-         COALESCE(SUM(payload.processes.parent.scalars.browser_engagement_active_ticks), 0) AS active_ticks,
-        FROM telemetry.main
-        WHERE DATE(submission_timestamp) >= DATE(2020,12,1)
-        AND sample_id = 0
-        GROUP BY 1, 2
-    )
-    ,
-
-    main_dau AS (
-        SELECT
-            submission_date,
-            100 * COUNTIF((normal > 0 OR normal_private > 0) and active_ticks > 0) AS uri_dau_either_at,
-        FROM main_clients
-        GROUP BY 1
-    )
-
-SELECT
-    *
-FROM cd_dau
-LEFT JOIN main_dau
-USING(submission_date)

jobs/kpi-forecasting/kpi-forecasting/sql_queries/desktop_dau_v2.sql

@@ -1,6 +0,0 @@
-SELECT
-     submission_date,
-     SUM(dau) AS DAU
-FROM telemetry.firefox_desktop_usage_2021
-GROUP BY 1
-ORDER BY 1

jobs/kpi-forecasting/kpi-forecasting/sql_queries/desktop_qcdou.sql

@@ -1,8 +0,0 @@
-SELECT
-    submission_date,
-    COUNTIF(active_hours_sum > 0 AND uri_count > 0) AS qcdou
-FROM telemetry.unified_metrics
-WHERE normalized_app_name = 'Firefox Desktop'
-AND submission_date >= DATE(2017,1,1)
-GROUP BY 1
-ORDER BY 1

jobs/kpi-forecasting/kpi-forecasting/sql_queries/desktop_qdau.sql

@@ -1,4 +1,6 @@
--- use unified_metrics as the source of truth for KPIs
+-- Use unified_metrics as the source of truth for KPIs
+-- QDAU is aggregated to calculate QCDOU. 
+-- Forecasting procedure for QCDOU: Forecast QDAU then aggregate to QCDOU. QCDOU should not be forecasted directly.
 SELECT
     submission_date,
     COUNTIF(normalized_app_name = 'Firefox Desktop' AND active_hours_sum > 0 AND uri_count > 0) AS QDAU,

jobs/kpi-forecasting/kpi-forecasting/sql_queries/mobile_dau.sql

@@ -1,18 +1,11 @@
-WITH mobile AS
-  (SELECT submission_date,
-          sum(dau) AS dau
-   FROM telemetry.mobile_usage_2021
-   WHERE submission_date BETWEEN DATE(2020, 1, 1) AND CURRENT_DATE
-     AND app_name IN ('firefox_ios',
-                      'fennec',
-                      'fenix',
-                      'focus_android',
-                      'focus_ios')
-   GROUP BY submission_date
-   )
-SELECT *,
-       sum(dau) OVER (PARTITION BY extract(YEAR
-                                           FROM submission_date)
-                      ORDER BY submission_date ASC ROWS BETWEEN UNBOUNDED PRECEDING AND CURRENT ROW) AS cdou
-FROM mobile
-ORDER BY submission_date
+-- Use unified_metrics as the source of truth for KPIs
+-- DAU is aggregated to calculate CDOU. 
+-- Forecasting procedure for CDOU: Forecast DAU then aggregate to CDOU. CDOU should not be forecasted directly.
+SELECT
+    submission_date,
+    COUNTIF(normalized_app_name != 'Firefox Desktop') AS DAU
+FROM telemetry.unified_metrics
+WHERE `mozfun`.bits28.active_in_range(days_seen_bits, 0, 1)
+AND submission_date >= DATE(2018,1,1)
+GROUP BY 1
+ORDER BY 1

jobs/kpi-forecasting/kpi-forecasting/sql_queries/mobile_dau_v2.sql

@@ -1,8 +0,0 @@
-SELECT
-    submission_date,
-    COUNTIF(normalized_app_name != 'Firefox Desktop') AS DAU
-FROM telemetry.unified_metrics
-WHERE `mozfun`.bits28.active_in_range(days_seen_bits, 0, 1)
-AND submission_date >= DATE(2018,1,1)
-GROUP BY 1
-ORDER BY 1

jobs/kpi-forecasting/kpi-forecasting/yaml/desktop.yaml

@@ -1,18 +0,0 @@
----
-target: desktop
-query_name: "desktop_qcdou.sql"
-dataset_project: "mozdata"
-forecast_variable: "QCDOU"
-forecast_parameters:
-  changepoint_prior_scale: 0.05
-  changepoint_range: 0.8
-  seasonality_prior_scale: 0.01
-columns:
-- submission_date
-- qcdou
-write_project: "moz-fx-data-shared-prod"
-output_table: "telemetry_derived.kpi_automated_forecast_v1"
-confidences_table: "telemetry_derived.kpi_automated_forecast_confidences_v1"
-stop_date: "2023-12-31"
-holidays: True
-confidences: "ds_month"

jobs/kpi-forecasting/kpi-forecasting/yaml/mobile.yaml

@@ -1,18 +0,0 @@
----
-target: mobile
-query_name: "mobile_dau.sql"
-dataset_project: "mozdata"
-forecast_variable: "CDOU"
-forecast_parameters:
-  changepoint_prior_scale: 0.05
-  changepoint_range: 0.8
-  seasonality_prior_scale: 0.01
-columns:
-- submission_date
-- cdou
-write_project: "moz-fx-data-shared-prod"
-output_table: "telemetry_derived.kpi_automated_forecast_v1"
-confidences_table: "telemetry_derived.kpi_automated_forecast_confidences_v1"
-stop_date: "2023-12-31"
-holidays: True
-confidences: "ds_month"

jobs/kpi-forecasting/kpi-forecasting/yaml/mobile_non_cumulative.yaml

@@ -1,6 +1,6 @@
 ---
 target: mobile
-query_name: "mobile_dau_v2.sql"
+query_name: "mobile_dau.sql"
 dataset_project: "mozdata"
 forecast_variable: "DAU"
 forecast_parameters: