diff --git a/layout/generic/nsFrame.cpp b/layout/generic/nsFrame.cpp
index 3d4be54ee808..504e7adfb512 100644
--- a/layout/generic/nsFrame.cpp
+++ b/layout/generic/nsFrame.cpp
@@ -2954,9 +2954,12 @@ nsIFrame::BuildDisplayListForStackingContext(nsDisplayListBuilder* aBuilder,
   // layer (for async animations), see
   // nsSVGIntegrationsUtils::PaintMaskAndClipPath or
   // nsSVGIntegrationsUtils::PaintFilter.
+  // Use MayNeedActiveLayer to decide, since we don't want to condition the wrapping
+  // display item on values that might change silently between paints (opacity activity
+  // can depend on the will-change budget).
   bool useOpacity = HasVisualOpacity(effectSet) &&
                     !nsSVGUtils::CanOptimizeOpacity(this) &&
-                    (!usingSVGEffects || nsDisplayOpacity::NeedsActiveLayer(aBuilder, this));
+                    (!usingSVGEffects || nsDisplayOpacity::MayNeedActiveLayer(this));
   bool useBlendMode = effects->mMixBlendMode != NS_STYLE_BLEND_NORMAL;
   bool useStickyPosition = disp->mPosition == NS_STYLE_POSITION_STICKY &&
     IsScrollFrameActive(aBuilder,
diff --git a/layout/painting/nsDisplayList.cpp b/layout/painting/nsDisplayList.cpp
index 4fe1ecda4ee0..25bd9a426bf1 100644
--- a/layout/painting/nsDisplayList.cpp
+++ b/layout/painting/nsDisplayList.cpp
@@ -6526,6 +6526,12 @@ nsDisplayOpacity::NeedsActiveLayer(nsDisplayListBuilder* aBuilder, nsIFrame* aFr
   return false;
 }
 
+/* static */ bool
+nsDisplayOpacity::MayNeedActiveLayer(nsIFrame* aFrame)
+{
+  return ActiveLayerTracker::IsStyleMaybeAnimated(aFrame, eCSSProperty_opacity);
+}
+
 void
 nsDisplayOpacity::ApplyOpacity(nsDisplayListBuilder* aBuilder,
                              float aOpacity,
diff --git a/layout/painting/nsDisplayList.h b/layout/painting/nsDisplayList.h
index 616e00b629b9..b27f14fc7d88 100644
--- a/layout/painting/nsDisplayList.h
+++ b/layout/painting/nsDisplayList.h
@@ -5386,6 +5386,7 @@ public:
   bool OpacityAppliedToChildren() const { return mOpacityAppliedToChildren; }
 
   static bool NeedsActiveLayer(nsDisplayListBuilder* aBuilder, nsIFrame* aFrame);
+  static bool MayNeedActiveLayer(nsIFrame* aFrame);
   NS_DISPLAY_DECL_NAME("Opacity", TYPE_OPACITY)
   virtual void WriteDebugInfo(std::stringstream& aStream) override;